EnglandversusAustralia

29 Sept 2024 · ODI

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 49 runs

England49.2 overs309/10 Australia20.4 overs165/2 County Ground, Bristol ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

44%England56%Australia

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Australia rate stronger than England (1,786 vs 1,680 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, Australia won 7 and England won 3

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.