NamibiaversusZimbabwe

3 Sept 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 5 wickets

Namibia20.0 overs156/6 Zimbabwe18.1 overs159/5 Namibia Cricket Ground, Windhoek ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Namibia more likely to win

63%Namibia37%Zimbabwe

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Namibia rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,594 vs 1,518 on our results rating)
Namibia are playing at home in Namibia
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 6 and Namibia won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 60%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 66% during the match (Zimbabwe: 34% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.1: B Evans to L Steenkamp, L Steenkamp out. Zimbabwe up from 38% to 48%.
5.2: K Matigimu to ZE Green, ZE Green out. Zimbabwe up from 60% to 70%.
2nd inns 1.2: JJ Smit to BJ Curran, BJ Curran out. Namibia up from 47% to 58%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia156/6 Zimbabwe159/5

Innings 1

Namibia

156/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Louren Steenkampcaught · Wesley Madhevere · Brad Evans 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Wesley Madhevere · b Brad Evans	14	12	2	0	116.67
Jan Frylinckcaught · Wellington Masakadza · Blessing Muzarabani 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Wellington Masakadza · b Blessing Muzarabani	8	14	1	0	57.14
Gerhard Erasmusnot out 8 fours · 3 sixes	not out	88*	48	8	3	183.33
Zane Greencaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Kundai Matigimu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Kundai Matigimu	1	4	0	0	25.00
A Busing-Volschenkcaught · Ryan Burl · Brad Evans 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ryan Burl · b Brad Evans	29	31	2	1	93.55

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Wesley Madhevere0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	0	6.00	0
Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	1	8.50	1
Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0
Brad Evans0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	1
Kundai Matigimu0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	2	7.75	3
Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	0	9.00	0
Ryan Burl0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	8	14/0
3	3	17/0
4	3	20/1
5	5	25/2
6	1	26/3
7	4	30/3
8	6	36/3
9	10	46/3
10	4	50/3
11	9	59/3
12	14	73/3
13	6	79/3
14	15	94/3
15	8	102/3
16	7	109/4
17	10	119/5
18	9	128/6
19	13	141/6
20	15	156/6

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