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Photo: Gnan garra
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.5 au
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Big Bash League · 2025/26 · Men
17 Jan 2026 · T20
Perth Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Melbourne Stars started on 40%; Melbourne Stars batted first.
Melbourne Stars's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (Perth Scorchers: 52% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Rogerscaught · Mahli Beardman · Cooper Connolly 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mahli Beardman · b Cooper Connolly | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
| Sam Harpercaught · Luke Holt · Jhye Richardson 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Luke Holt · b Jhye Richardson | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Joe Clarkebowled · Cooper Connolly 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Cooper Connolly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Campbell Kellawaycaught · Josh Inglis · Aaron Hardie 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Aaron Hardie | 19 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 95.00 |
 Marcus Stoiniscaught · Jhye Richardson · David Payne5 fours · 2 sixes |
| caught · Jhye Richardson · b David Payne |
| 55 |
| 39 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 141.03 |
| Hilton Cartwrightcaught · Josh Inglis · Mahli Beardman 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Mahli Beardman | 13 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 86.67 |
|---|
 Glenn Maxwellcaught · Aaron Hardie · Jhye Richardson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Hardie · b Jhye Richardson | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
 Tom Currancaught · Jhye Richardson · David Payne0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jhye Richardson · b David Payne | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 180.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Swepsoncaught · Josh Inglis · Jhye Richardson 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Jhye Richardson | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Haris Raufcaught and bowled · Jhye Richardson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jhye Richardson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Peter Siddlenot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 6* | 6 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Jhye Richardson1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Hardie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahli Beardman0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 1 |
| David Payne0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 7.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Luke Holt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Tom Rogers, 0.4) · 2-8 (Joe Clarke, 0.5) · 3-15 (Sam Harper, 2.0) · 4-67 (Campbell Kellaway, 9.1) · 5-100 (Marcus Stoinis, 13.3) · 6-108 (Hilton Cartwright, 14.3) · 7-117 (Tom Curran, 15.4) · 8-117 (Glenn Maxwell, 16.2) · 9-117 (Haris Rauf, 16.3) · 10-130 (Mitchell Swepson, 18.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/2 |
| 2 | 6 | 15/3 |
| 3 | 13 | 28/3 |
| 4 | 4 | 32/3 |
| 5 | 6 | 38/3 |
| 6 | 8 | 46/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 50/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 55/3 |
| 9 | 12 | 67/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 73/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 78/4 |
| 12 | 9 | 87/4 |
| 13 | 11 | 98/4 |
| 14 | 7 | 105/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 109/6 |
| 16 | 8 | 117/7 |
| 17 | 0 | 117/9 |
| 18 | 7 | 124/9 |
| 19 | 6 | 130/10 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Marcus Stoinis: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashton Turner: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Peter Siddle: PrivateMusings · CC BY-SA 2.5
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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