**Boland Park, Paarl**
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusPaarl Royals

27 Dec 2025 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Eastern Cape won by 137 runs

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs186/4 Paarl Royals11.5 overs49/10 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 48%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Paarl Royals: 0% to 55%).

Biggest swings

8.2: OEG Baartman to JM Bairstow, JM Bairstow out. Paarl Royals up from 33% to 41%.
2nd inns 0.3: M Jansen to LG Pretorius, LG Pretorius out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 67% to 78%.
2nd inns 1.6: AF Milne to RA Herman, RA Herman out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 77% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape186/4 Paarl Royals49/10

Innings 1