Seattle OrcasversusTexas Super Kings

5 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Seattle Orcas won by 9 runs

Seattle Orcas20.0 overs121/9 Texas Super Kings20.0 overs112/9 Knight Riders Cricket Ground, Pomona ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Seattle Orcas started on 42%; Seattle Orcas batted first.

Seattle Orcas’s chance of winning (%) · Texas Super Kings is the rest

Seattle Orcas's chances ranged from 5% to 97% during the match (Texas Super Kings: 3% to 95%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.2: MP Stoinis to D Forrester, D Forrester out. Seattle Orcas up from 35% to 54%.
2nd inns 19.1: MD Shanaka to Shubham Ranjane, four by Shubham Ranjane. Texas Super Kings up from 24% to 41%.
2nd inns 19.3: MD Shanaka to D Ferreira, D Ferreira out. Seattle Orcas up from 65% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.