LeicestershireversusBirmingham Bears

4 Jul 2025 · T20

Grace Road, Leicester · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 6 wickets

Leicestershire19.3 overs154/10 Birmingham Bears18.2 overs158/4 Grace Road, Leicester ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Leicestershire started on 45%; Leicestershire batted first.

Leicestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Birmingham Bears is the rest

Leicestershire's chances ranged from 0% to 72% during the match (Birmingham Bears: 28% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.4: Hasan Ali to Shan Masood, Shan Masood out. Birmingham Bears up from 38% to 51%.
5.5: Hasan Ali to LPJ Kimber, LPJ Kimber out. Birmingham Bears up from 43% to 59%.
8.5: DR Briggs to SG Budinger, SG Budinger out. Birmingham Bears up from 50% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Birmingham Bears chose to field
match referees: IL Herbert
umpires: Hassan Adnan, Tom Lungley

Match history & source

On 4 Jul 2025, Leicestershire played Birmingham Bears at Grace Road, Leicester. Recorded result: Birmingham Bears won by 6 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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