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ICC World Test Championship · 2025 · Men
11 Jun 2025 · Test
Lord's · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markrambowled · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Usman Khawaja · Mitchell Starc3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khawaja · b Mitchell Starc | 16 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 69.57 |
 Wiaan Mulderbowled · Pat Cummins0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pat Cummins | 6 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 13.64 |
| caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Pat Cummins |
| 36 |
| 84 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 42.86 |
| Tristan Stubbsbowled · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Hazlewood | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 15.38 |
|---|
| David Bedinghamcaught · Alex Carey · Pat Cummins 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins | 45 | 111 | 6 | 0 | 40.54 |
|---|
| Kyle Verreynnelbw · Pat Cummins 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Pat Cummins | 13 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Marco Jansencaught and bowled · Pat Cummins0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Pat Cummins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajrun out · Travis Head, Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Travis Head, Alex Carey | 7 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 46.67 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadacaught · Beau Webster · Pat Cummins0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beau Webster · b Pat Cummins | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
 Lungi Ngidinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 10 · wides: 0 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 13.0 | 3 | 41 | 2 | 3.15 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Hazlewood5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.0 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 1.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Pat Cummins6 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 18.1 | 6 | 28 | 6 | 1.54 | 0 | 1 |
 Nathan Lyon3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Beau Webster0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 1 |
1-0 (Aiden Markram, 1.0) · 2-19 (Ryan Rickelton, 8.4) · 3-25 (Wiaan Mulder, 15.2) · 4-30 (Tristan Stubbs, 20.2) · 5-94 (Temba Bavuma, 39.2) · 6-126 (Kyle Verreynne, 51.3) · 7-126 (Marco Jansen, 52.0) · 8-135 (David Bedingham, 55.2) · 9-138 (Keshav Maharaj, 56.5) · 10-138 (Kagiso Rabada, 57.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 7/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 8/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 14/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 14/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 15/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 19/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 19/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 19/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 20/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 21/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 23/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 23/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 26/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 27/3 |
| 18 | 0 | 27/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 29/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 30/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 34/4 |
| 22 | 9 | 43/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 45/4 |
| 24 | 0 | 45/4 |
| 25 | 10 | 55/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 59/4 |
| 27 | 7 | 66/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 67/4 |
| 29 | 1 | 68/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 69/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 70/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 76/4 |
| 33 | 0 | 76/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 81/4 |
| 35 | 6 | 87/4 |
| 36 | 5 | 92/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 93/4 |
| 38 | 1 | 94/4 |
| 39 | 0 | 94/4 |
| 40 | 0 | 94/5 |
| 41 | 0 | 94/5 |
| 42 | 1 | 95/5 |
| 43 | 0 | 95/5 |
| 44 | 2 | 97/5 |
| 45 | 3 | 100/5 |
| 46 | 1 | 101/5 |
| 47 | 7 | 108/5 |
| 48 | 3 | 111/5 |
| 49 | 10 | 121/5 |
| 50 | 2 | 123/5 |
| 51 | 2 | 125/5 |
| 52 | 1 | 126/7 |
| 53 | 3 | 129/7 |
| 54 | 1 | 130/7 |
| 55 | 5 | 135/7 |
| 56 | 0 | 135/8 |
| 57 | 3 | 138/9 |
| 58 | 0 | 138/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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