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ICC World Test Championship · 2025 · Men
11 Jun 2025 · Test
Lord's · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Usman Khawajacaught · David Bedingham · Kagiso Rabada0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · David Bedingham · b Kagiso Rabada | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Kyle Verreynne · Marco Jansen1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Marco Jansen | 17 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 30.36 |
 Cameron Greencaught · Aiden Markram · Kagiso Rabada1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Kagiso Rabada | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
 Steve Smithcaught · Marco Jansen · Aiden Markram10 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Marco Jansen · b Aiden Markram |
| 66 |
| 112 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 58.93 |
 Travis Headcaught · Kyle Verreynne · Marco Jansen1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Marco Jansen | 11 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 84.62 |
|---|
 Beau Webstercaught · David Bedingham · Kagiso Rabada11 fours · 0 sixes | caught · David Bedingham · b Kagiso Rabada | 72 | 92 | 11 | 0 | 78.26 |
|---|
 Alex Careybowled · Keshav Maharaj4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Keshav Maharaj | 23 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 74.19 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminsbowled · Kagiso Rabada0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kagiso Rabada | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starcbowled · Kagiso Rabada0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kagiso Rabada | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyonbowled · Marco Jansen0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marco Jansen | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 0 · noballs: 10 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kagiso Rabada5 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 15.4 | 5 | 51 | 5 | 3.26 | 0 | 1 |
 Marco Jansen5 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 14.0 | 5 | 49 | 3 | 3.50 | 0 | 2 |
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 5.63 | 0 | 2 |
 Wiaan Mulder3 maidens · 0 wides · 5 no-balls | 11.0 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 3.27 | 0 | 5 |
 Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 3.17 | 0 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Usman Khawaja, 6.3) · 2-16 (Cameron Green, 7.0) · 3-46 (Marnus Labuschagne, 18.0) · 4-67 (Travis Head, 23.2) · 5-146 (Steve Smith, 42.0) · 6-192 (Alex Carey, 51.1) · 7-199 (Pat Cummins, 52.4) · 8-210 (Beau Webster, 54.4) · 9-211 (Nathan Lyon, 55.5) · 10-212 (Mitchell Starc, 56.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 16/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 18/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 22/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 26/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 26/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 29/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 29/2 |
| 14 | 8 | 37/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 37/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 41/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 41/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 46/3 |
| 19 | 1 | 47/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 53/3 |
| 21 | 5 | 58/3 |
| 22 | 8 | 66/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 67/3 |
| 24 | 0 | 67/4 |
| 25 | 11 | 78/4 |
| 26 | 0 | 78/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 82/4 |
| 28 | 8 | 90/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 94/4 |
| 30 | 0 | 94/4 |
| 31 | 0 | 94/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 99/4 |
| 33 | 5 | 104/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 109/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 111/4 |
| 36 | 6 | 117/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 123/4 |
| 38 | 10 | 133/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 137/4 |
| 40 | 5 | 142/4 |
| 41 | 3 | 145/4 |
| 42 | 1 | 146/5 |
| 43 | 11 | 157/5 |
| 44 | 4 | 161/5 |
| 45 | 6 | 167/5 |
| 46 | 5 | 172/5 |
| 47 | 2 | 174/5 |
| 48 | 9 | 183/5 |
| 49 | 6 | 189/5 |
| 50 | 1 | 190/5 |
| 51 | 2 | 192/5 |
| 52 | 2 | 194/6 |
| 53 | 5 | 199/7 |
| 54 | 3 | 202/7 |
| 55 | 8 | 210/8 |
| 56 | 1 | 211/9 |
| 57 | 1 | 212/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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