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Photo: Michal Klajban
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Super Smash · 2024/25 · Men
24 Jan 2025 · T20
Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photographRecorded result
Wellington started on 38%; Wellington batted first.
Wellington's chances ranged from 24% to 100% during the match (Canterbury: 0% to 76%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jesse Tashkoffcaught · Cole McConchie · Matt Henry3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Cole McConchie · b Matt Henry | 52 | 40 | 3 | 2 | 130.00 |
 Gareth Severincaught · Daryl Mitchell · Matt Henry0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Matt Henry | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| Nick Kellystumped · Mitchell Hay · Cole McConchie 3 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Mitchell Hay · b Cole McConchie | 34 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 170.00 |
 Muhammad Abbascaught · Ish Sodhi · Kyle Jamieson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ish Sodhi · b Kyle Jamieson |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
 Tom Blundellcaught · Matt Boyle · Matt Henry2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matt Boyle · b Matt Henry | 20 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 142.86 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellbowled · Zakary Foulkes 0 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Zakary Foulkes | 20 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithcaught · Kyle Jamieson · Matt Henry 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kyle Jamieson · b Matt Henry | 17 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 130.77 |
|---|
| Logan van Beekcaught · Cole McConchie · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cole McConchie · b Matt Henry | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Peter Younghusbandcaught · Matt Henry · Zakary Foulkes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matt Henry · b Zakary Foulkes | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Ben Searsrun out · Mitchell Hay, Matt Henry · Zakary Foulkes 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mitchell Hay, Matt Henry | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Michael Sneddennot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 47 | 2 | 11.75 | 5 | 1 |
 William O’Rourke0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 11.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole McConchie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-7 (Gareth Severin, 2.3) · 2-60 (Nick Kelly, 7.4) · 3-66 (Muhammad Abbas, 9.2) · 4-117 (Tom Blundell, 14.2) · 5-118 (Jesse Tashkoff, 14.4) · 6-151 (Michael Bracewell, 18.0) · 7-159 (Nathan Smith, 18.4) · 8-160 (Logan van Beek, 19.0) · 9-160 (Peter Younghusband, 19.1) · 10-167 (Ben Sears, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 12 | 29/1 |
| 6 | 18 | 47/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 52/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 60/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 66/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 75/3 |
| 11 | 10 | 85/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 91/3 |
| 13 | 16 | 107/3 |
| 14 | 9 | 116/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 119/5 |
| 16 | 11 | 130/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 137/5 |
| 18 | 14 | 151/6 |
| 19 | 9 | 160/8 |
| 20 | 7 | 167/10 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Muhammad Abbas: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Gareth Severin: New Zealand Government, Office of the Governor-General · CC BY 4.0
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Jesse Tashkoff: New Zealand Government, Office of the Governor-General · CC BY 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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