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Mdina Cup · 2024 · Men
11 May 2024 · T20
Recorded result
France more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Belgium started on 34%; Belgium batted first.
Belgium's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (France: 60% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H Niazcaught · Shaheryar Butt · F Khaliq 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shaheryar Butt · b F Khaliq | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 240.00 |
| Zain Ahmadcaught · Shaheryar Butt · Murid Ekrami 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shaheryar Butt · b Murid Ekrami | 28 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 200.00 |
| G Mckeonbowled · B Niaz 1 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b B Niaz | 31 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 134.78 |
| C Robertsnot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 32* | 30 | 4 | 0 | 106.67 |
| L Canessanenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sajad Ahmadzai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 17.00 | 1 | 0 |
| F Khaliq0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Murid Ekrami0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Zaki Ul Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Saber Zakhil0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Jamil0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
| B Niaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.2 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-14 (H Niaz, 1.1) · 2-56 (Zain Ahmad, 4.3) · 3-103 (G Mckeon, 10.5)
Recorded target: 113 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 14/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 21/1 |
| 3 | 20 | 41/1 |
| 4 | 11 | 52/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 59/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 66/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 74/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 83/2 |
| 9 | 11 | 94/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 98/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 103/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 110/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 114/3 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.