Mdina Cup · 2024 · Men

BelgiumversusFrance

11 May 2024 · T20

Recorded result

France won by 7 wickets

Belgium19.3 overs112/10 France12.2 overs114/3 Dreux Sport Cricket Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

France more likely to win

34%Belgium66%France

Why

France are playing at home in France
On results in T20 internationals so far, France rate stronger than Belgium (1,479 vs 1,444 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, France won 1 and Belgium won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Belgium started on 34%; Belgium batted first.

Belgium’s chance of winning (%) · France is the rest

Belgium's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (France: 60% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.1: Ikbal Hossain to Sazzad Hosen, Sazzad Hosen out. France up from 61% to 70%.
2.3: Ikbal Hossain to F Khaliq, F Khaliq out. France up from 71% to 78%.
5.4: S Stanikzay to B Niaz, B Niaz out. France up from 81% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Belgium112/10 France114/3

Innings 1

Belgium

112/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Belgium batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Jamilbowled · Ikbal Hossain 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ikbal Hossain	15	19	3	0	78.95
Sazzad Hosencaught · G Mckeon · Ikbal Hossain 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · G Mckeon · b Ikbal Hossain	5	5	1	0	100.00
F Khaliqcaught · R Mangal · Ikbal Hossain 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · R Mangal · b Ikbal Hossain	0	2	0	0	0.00
B Niazlbw · S Stanikzay 0 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b S Stanikzay	8	8	0	1	100.00
Sheraz Sheikhcaught and bowled · R Mangal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b R Mangal	7	11	0	0	63.64
Shaheryar Butt

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ikbal Hossain0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	3	4.00	3
Noman Amjad0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	5
S Stanikzay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	0
R Mangal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	1	4.75	1
Rahmatullah Mangal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	14	4	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	7	13/0
3	3	16/2
4	5	21/2
5	5	26/3
6	6	32/4
7	2	34/4
8	8	42/4
9	5	47/4
10	10	57/4
11	2	59/5
12	3	62/6
13	5	67/6
14	7	74/6
15	7	81/6
16	13	94/6
17	1	95/7
18	4	99/8
19	13	112/8
20	0	112/10

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