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Photo: Sankarshan Mukhopadhyay from Pune, India
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized to at most 1600px wide and converted to WebP. Display crops vary; source photographs are historical.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
20 Oct 2025 · ODI
Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 49%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Harshitha Madavi | 7 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Rubya Haidercaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Udeshika Prabodhani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Udeshika Prabodhani | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 64* | 103 | 4 | 1 | 62.14 |
| Sobhana Mostarycaught · Vishmi Gunaratne · Sugandika Kumari 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vishmi Gunaratne · b Sugandika Kumari | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61.54 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 1% to 95% during the match (Bangladesh: 5% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Chamari Atapattu |
| 77 |
| 98 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 78.57 |
| Shorna Aktercaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Chamari Atapattu 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Chamari Atapattu | 19 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 70.37 |
|---|
| Ritu Monibowled · Sugandika Kumari 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sugandika Kumari | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 53.85 |
|---|
| Rabeya Khanlbw · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chamari Atapattu | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nilakshi de Silva | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chamari Atapattu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nishita Akter Nishinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malki Madara0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 2.71 | 4 | 0 |
| 7.0 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 4.14 | 3 | 0 | |
| 9.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 4.22 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
| 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 4 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 | |
| 7.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 3.57 | 1 | 0 |
1-2 (Rubya Haider, 1.5) · 2-24 (Fargana Hoque, 10.2) · 3-44 (Sobhana Mostary, 15.3) · 4-176 (Shorna Akter, 45.1) · 5-193 (Ritu Moni, 48.4) · 6-194 (Rabeya Khan, 49.1) · 7-194 (Nahida Akter, 49.2) · 8-194 (Nigar Sultana, 49.3) · 9-194 (Marufa Akter, 49.4)
Recorded target: 203 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 2/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 8/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 11/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 12/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 21/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 22/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 23/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 25/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 33/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 39/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 41/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 42/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 46/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 49/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 52/3 |
| 19 | 5 | 57/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 58/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 60/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 66/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 70/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 71/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 73/3 |
| 26 | 9 | 82/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 84/3 |
| 28 | 7 | 91/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 94/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 100/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 103/3 |
| 32 | 6 | 109/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 114/3 |
| 34 | 8 | 122/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 124/3 |
| 36 | 4 | 128/3 |
| 37 | 3 | 131/3 |
| 38 | 7 | 138/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 142/3 |
| 40 | 4 | 146/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 151/3 |
| 42 | 7 | 158/3 |
| 43 | 7 | 165/3 |
| 44 | 8 | 173/3 |
| 45 | 3 | 176/3 |
| 46 | 2 | 178/4 |
| 47 | 4 | 182/4 |
| 48 | 9 | 191/4 |
| 49 | 3 | 194/5 |
| 50 | 1 | 195/9 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.