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Photo: Sankarshan Mukhopadhyay from Pune, India
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized to at most 1600px wide and converted to WebP. Display crops vary; source photographs are historical.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
20 Oct 2025 · ODI
Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 49%; Sri Lanka batted first.
On 20 Oct 2025, Sri Lanka played Bangladesh at Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai. Recorded result: Sri Lanka won by 7 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 1% to 95% during the match (Bangladesh: 5% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.