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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
25 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 36%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max O'Dowdcaught · Waseem Muhammad · Aayan Afzal Khan 10 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 103 | 79 | 10 | 5 | 130.38 |
| C de Lange (2)caught · Aryansh Sharma · Khuzaima Tanveer 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aryansh Sharma · b Khuzaima Tanveer | 23 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 74.19 |
| Noah Croescaught · Aryansh Sharma · Khuzaima Tanveer 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aryansh Sharma · b Khuzaima Tanveer | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Bas de Leedebowled · Muhammad Shahdad1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Shahdad | 9 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
 |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Netherlands: 39% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Khuzaima Tanveer |
| 16 |
| 28 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 57.14 |
 Colin Ackermannbowled · Khuzaima Tanveer0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Khuzaima Tanveer | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Michael Levittnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 36* | 50 | 1 | 1 | 72.00 |
|---|
 Timm van der Gugtenrun out · Rahul Chopra, Aayan Afzal Khan · Aayan Afzal Khan1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rahul Chopra, Aayan Afzal Khan | 9 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 64.29 |
|---|
| Aryan Duttnot out 3 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 36* | 36 | 3 | 3 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 6.89 | 4 | 0 |
| Khuzaima Tanveer0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 43 | 4 | 4.37 | 4 | 0 |
| Aayan Afzal Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 6.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Basil Hameed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Awais Ali Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Shahdad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-102 (C de Lange (2), 13.1) · 2-102 (Noah Croes, 13.3) · 3-120 (Bas de Leede, 16.4) · 4-157 (Max O'Dowd, 24.5) · 5-157 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 25.2) · 6-166 (Colin Ackermann, 29.2) · 7-186 (Timm van der Gugten, 34.4)
Recorded target: 245 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 26/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 33/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 43/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 52/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 58/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 68/0 |
| 9 | 9 | 77/0 |
| 10 | 16 | 93/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 96/0 |
| 12 | 1 | 97/0 |
| 13 | 5 | 102/0 |
| 14 | 1 | 103/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 109/2 |
| 16 | 9 | 118/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 120/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 124/3 |
| 19 | 7 | 131/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 137/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 141/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 142/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 144/3 |
| 24 | 10 | 154/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 157/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 158/5 |
| 27 | 1 | 159/5 |
| 28 | 3 | 162/5 |
| 29 | 3 | 165/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 168/6 |
| 31 | 1 | 169/6 |
| 32 | 3 | 172/6 |
| 33 | 7 | 179/6 |
| 34 | 5 | 184/6 |
| 35 | 2 | 186/7 |
| 36 | 9 | 195/7 |
| 37 | 10 | 205/7 |
| 38 | 1 | 206/7 |
| 39 | 5 | 211/7 |
| 40 | 13 | 224/7 |
| 41 | 12 | 236/7 |
| 42 | 3 | 239/7 |
| 43 | 3 | 242/7 |
| 44 | 3 | 245/7 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
