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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
25 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 36%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryansh Sharmacaught · Noah Croes · Timm van der Gugten 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Noah Croes · b Timm van der Gugten | 15 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 71.43 |
| T Suricaught · C de Lange (2) · Bas de Leede 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C de Lange (2) · b Bas de Leede | 40 | 60 | 5 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Muhammad Shahdadbowled · Timm van der Gugten 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Timm van der Gugten | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Rahul Chopranot out 9 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 82* | 102 | 9 | 0 | 80.39 |
| Akshdeep Nathbowled · Timm van der Gugten 7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Timm van der Gugten | 68 | 77 | 7 | 0 | 88.31 |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Netherlands: 39% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Bas de Leede · b Aryan Dutt |
| 19 |
| 20 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 95.00 |
| Khuzaima Tanveerbowled · Paul van Meekeren 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Paul van Meekeren | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Basil Hameedcaught · Max O'Dowd · Timm van der Gugten 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Max O'Dowd · b Timm van der Gugten | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Awais Ali Shahcaught · Bas de Leede · Timm van der Gugten 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Bas de Leede · b Timm van der Gugten | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Aayan Afzal Khannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Timm van der Gugten1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 39 | 5 | 3.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Klaassen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 4.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Bas de Leede1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Colin Ackermann0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach Lion-Cachet0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-38 (Aryansh Sharma, 8.2) · 2-38 (Muhammad Shahdad, 8.5) · 3-73 (T Suri, 18.3) · 4-213 (Waseem Muhammad, 45.0) · 5-215 (Khuzaima Tanveer, 45.2) · 6-226 (Akshdeep Nath, 47.1) · 7-227 (Basil Hameed, 47.4) · 8-227 (Awais Ali Shah, 47.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 31/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 34/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 38/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 38/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 39/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 44/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 46/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 49/2 |
| 14 | 8 | 57/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 60/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 63/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 69/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 73/2 |
| 19 | 0 | 73/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 77/3 |
| 21 | 9 | 86/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 87/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 89/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 95/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 99/3 |
| 26 | 9 | 108/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 112/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 118/3 |
| 29 | 7 | 125/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 132/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 134/3 |
| 32 | 9 | 143/3 |
| 33 | 1 | 144/3 |
| 34 | 8 | 152/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 157/3 |
| 36 | 4 | 161/3 |
| 37 | 3 | 164/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 168/3 |
| 39 | 3 | 171/3 |
| 40 | 4 | 175/3 |
| 41 | 6 | 181/3 |
| 42 | 7 | 188/3 |
| 43 | 5 | 193/3 |
| 44 | 10 | 203/3 |
| 45 | 10 | 213/4 |
| 46 | 9 | 222/5 |
| 47 | 4 | 226/5 |
| 48 | 2 | 228/8 |
| 49 | 9 | 237/8 |
| 50 | 7 | 244/8 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
