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Photo: Yorkspotter
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2025 · Men
16 Jul 2025 · T20
Lord's · Venue photographSurrey started on 70%; Surrey batted first.
Surrey's chances ranged from 63% to 99% during the match (Middlesex: 2% to 37%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Eskinazicaught · Ryan Patel · Chris Jordan 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ryan Patel · b Chris Jordan | 53 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 139.47 |
| Ben Geddescaught · Jamie Overton · Jordan Clark 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Jordan Clark | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Max Holdencaught · Sam Curran · Chris Jordan 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sam Curran · b Chris Jordan | 12 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 120.00 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Jason Roy · Will Jacks2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jason Roy · b Will Jacks | 16 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 123.08 |
 |
| run out · ARG Thomas |
| 29 |
| 17 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 170.59 |
 Ryan Higginsnot out3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 29* | 18 | 3 | 1 | 161.11 |
|---|
| Joe Cracknellcaught · Will Jacks · Jamie Overton 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Jamie Overton | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Luke Hollmannot out5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 32* | 14 | 5 | 1 | 228.57 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reece Topley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 10.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Clark0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 10.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Chris Jordan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 8.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-18 (Ben Geddes, 1.3) · 2-53 (Max Holden, 5.4) · 3-75 (Kane Williamson, 9.1) · 4-114 (Leus du Plooy, 13.3) · 5-115 (Stephen Eskinazi, 13.5) · 6-119 (Joe Cracknell, 15.1)
Recorded target: 190 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 18/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 24/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 29/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 36/1 |
| 5 | 14 | 50/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 54/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 61/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 71/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 75/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 80/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 89/3 |
| 12 | 14 | 103/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 109/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 116/5 |
| 15 | 3 | 119/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 125/6 |
| 17 | 12 | 137/6 |
| 18 | 15 | 152/6 |
| 19 | 19 | 171/6 |
| 20 | 10 | 181/6 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Luke Hollman: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Helm: Dave Morton · Public domain
Leus du Plooy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zafar Gohar: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ryan Higgins: Dave Morton · Public domain
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jason Roy: Joeyjackets · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Noah Cornwell: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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