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Photo: Yorkspotter
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2025 · Men
16 Jul 2025 · T20
Lord's · Venue photographSurrey started on 70%; Surrey batted first.
Surrey's chances ranged from 63% to 99% during the match (Middlesex: 2% to 37%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Jacksstumped · Joe Cracknell · Luke Hollman5 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Joe Cracknell · b Luke Hollman | 52 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 144.44 |
| Ryan Patelcaught · Joe Cracknell · Ryan Higgins 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Joe Cracknell · b Ryan Higgins | 23 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 209.09 |
 Jason Roycaught · Kane Williamson · Luke Hollman0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Luke Hollman | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Sam Currancaught · Ben Geddes · Zafar Gohar1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Geddes · b Zafar Gohar | 8 |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 114.29 |
 Daniel Lawrencecaught · Luke Hollman · Ryan Higgins3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Luke Hollman · b Ryan Higgins | 24 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 109.09 |
|---|
 Tom Currancaught · Joe Cracknell · Ryan Higgins7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Joe Cracknell · b Ryan Higgins | 47 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 213.64 |
|---|
| Ollie Sykesbowled · Noah Cornwell 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Noah Cornwell | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtonlbw · Ryan Higgins0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ryan Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Chris Jordancaught · Noah Cornwell · Tom Helm2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Noah Cornwell · b Tom Helm | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 157.14 |
|---|
 Jordan Clarknot out0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 13* | 5 | 0 | 2 | 260.00 |
|---|
 Reece Topleynot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zafar Gohar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Ryan Higgins0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Noah Cornwell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 12.25 | 2 | 0 |
 Tom Helm0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 10.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Luke Hollman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-66 (Ryan Patel, 6.0) · 2-69 (Jason Roy, 7.0) · 3-84 (Sam Curran, 9.1) · 4-88 (Will Jacks, 10.1) · 5-149 (Daniel Lawrence, 16.0) · 6-161 (Tom Curran, 17.2) · 7-161 (Jamie Overton, 17.3) · 8-170 (Ollie Sykes, 18.4) · 9-182 (Chris Jordan, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 20/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 25/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 32/0 |
| 5 | 23 | 55/0 |
| 6 | 11 | 66/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 69/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 75/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 84/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 88/3 |
| 11 | 12 | 100/4 |
| 12 | 11 | 111/4 |
| 13 | 8 | 119/4 |
| 14 | 16 | 135/4 |
| 15 | 10 | 145/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 149/5 |
| 17 | 8 | 157/5 |
| 18 | 7 | 164/7 |
| 19 | 7 | 171/8 |
| 20 | 18 | 189/9 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Luke Hollman: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Helm: Dave Morton · Public domain
Leus du Plooy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zafar Gohar: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ryan Higgins: Dave Morton · Public domain
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jason Roy: Joeyjackets · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Noah Cornwell: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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