Sri LankaversusUnited States of America

3 May 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 18 runs

Sri Lanka20.0 overs123/4 United States of America20.0 overs105/6 Sheikh Zayed Stadium Nursery 1, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

78%Sri Lanka22%United States of America

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than United States of America (1,639 vs 1,431 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 77%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · United States of America is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 46%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.2: AC Jayangani to A Kolan, A Kolan out. Sri Lanka up from 75% to 83%.
2nd inns 12.2: I Ranaweera to D Dhingra, D Dhingra out. Sri Lanka up from 54% to 67%.
2nd inns 13.4: AC Jayangani to S Sriharsha, S Sriharsha out. Sri Lanka up from 73% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka123/4 United States of America105/6

Innings 2

United States of America

105/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

United States of America batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
D Dhingracaught · Sugandika Kumari · Inoka Ranaweera 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sugandika Kumari · b Inoka Ranaweera	28	29	4	0	96.55
Anika Kolancaught · Inoka Ranaweera · Chamari Atapattu 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Inoka Ranaweera · b Chamari Atapattu	9	17	1	0	52.94
Sindhu Sriharshacaught · Nilakshi de Silva · Chamari Atapattu 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Chamari Atapattu	27	31	3	0	87.10
Pooja Ganeshbowled · Udeshika Prabodhani 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Udeshika Prabodhani	7	16	0	0	43.75
AI Chudasamarun out · Sugandika Kumari, Shashini Gimhani · Shashini Gimhani0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	3	3.50	0
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	0	6.50	1
Achini Kulasuriya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	0
Udeshika Prabodhani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	1	3.25	0
Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	1	6.67	0
Shashini Gimhani0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	0	5.67	3

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	3	5/0
3	1	6/0
4	4	10/0
5	3	13/1
6	9	22/1
7	6	28/1
8	2	30/1
9	8	38/1
10	4	42/1
11	10	52/1
12	7	59/1
13	6	65/2
14	2	67/3
15	2	69/4
16	7	76/4
17	6	82/4
18	6	88/5
19	9	97/5
20	8	105/6

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