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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Qualifier · 2024 · Women
3 May 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 77%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 46%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vishmi Gunaratnelbw · S Immadi 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b S Immadi | 25 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 113.64 |
 Chamari Atapattubowled · Geetika Kodali1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Geetika Kodali | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
 Harshitha Madavicaught · Sindhu Sriharsha · AI Chudasama3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sindhu Sriharsha · b AI Chudasama | 23 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 74.19 |
| Hansima Karunaratnenot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 25* | 27 | 3 | 0 | 92.59 |
 |
| run out · Pooja Shah, Geetika Kodali |
| 21 |
| 29 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 72.41 |
 Anushka Sanjeewaninot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 15* | 10 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 3 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geetika Kodali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
| AI Chudasama0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Isani Vaghela0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| JM Willathgamuwa0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 1 | 1 |
| S Immadi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| ST Eyyunni0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-6 (Chamari Atapattu, 1.0) · 2-55 (Vishmi Gunaratne, 9.0) · 3-55 (Harshitha Madavi, 9.1) · 4-98 (Nilakshi de Silva, 17.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 11/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 11 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 27/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 41/1 |
| 8 | 12 | 53/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 55/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 57/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 59/3 |
| 12 | 11 | 70/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 74/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 78/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 84/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 86/3 |
| 17 | 12 | 98/4 |
| 18 | 4 | 102/4 |
| 19 | 11 | 113/4 |
| 20 | 10 | 123/4 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sindhu Sriharsha: Hong Kong Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Achini Kulasuriya: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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