**Old Trafford**
Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

WorcestershireversusLancashire

7 Jul 2024 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lancashire won by 2 wickets

Worcestershire20.0 overs181/4 Lancashire19.5 overs182/8 Old Trafford ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Worcestershire started on 35%; Worcestershire batted first.

Worcestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Lancashire is the rest

Worcestershire's chances ranged from 21% to 81% during the match (Lancashire: 19% to 79%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.5: MJ Waite to TW Hartley, TW Hartley out. Worcestershire up from 21% to 43%.
2nd inns 18.6: MJ Waite to TH Aspinwall, TH Aspinwall out. Worcestershire up from 43% to 70%.
2nd inns 19.5: TAI Taylor to L Wood, six by L Wood. Lancashire up from 28% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.