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East Asia Cup · 2023/24 · Men
15 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Hong Kong started on 73%; Hong Kong batted first.
Hong Kong's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (Japan: 0% to 67%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L Yamamoto-Lakecaught · Nizakat Khan · Dhananjay Rao 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nizakat Khan · b Dhananjay Rao | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Kendel Kadowaki-Flemingbowled · Yasim Murtaza 3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Yasim Murtaza | 22 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 157.14 |
| W Miyauchicaught · Anshuman Rath · Ateeq Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anshuman Rath · b Ateeq Iqbal | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 23.08 |
| S Ravichandranlbw · Anas Khan 1 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Anas Khan | 15 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
| KH Aberun out · Aizaz Khan · Ateeq Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Aizaz Khan | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| run out · Dhananjay Rao |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Ibrahim Takahashicaught and bowled · Anas Khan 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Anas Khan | 25 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 108.70 |
|---|
| R Sakurano-Thomasstumped · James Atkinson · Anas Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · James Atkinson · b Anas Khan | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| K Kato-Staffordcaught · Anshuman Rath · Anas Khan 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Anshuman Rath · b Anas Khan | 21 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 161.54 |
|---|
| Charlie Hara-Hinzecaught · Anas Khan · Ateeq Iqbal 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anas Khan · b Ateeq Iqbal | 14 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| R Drakenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dhananjay Rao0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 5 | 0 |
| Ehsan Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ateeq Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 2.61 | 0 | 0 |
| Yasim Murtaza0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Aizaz Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Anas Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 4 | 7.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-17 (L Yamamoto-Lake, 2.2) · 2-25 (W Miyauchi, 5.0) · 3-31 (Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming, 5.2) · 4-32 (KH Abe, 6.2) · 5-41 (D Suzuki, 7.3) · 6-60 (S Ravichandran, 9.5) · 7-67 (R Sakurano-Thomas, 11.1) · 8-107 (K Kato-Stafford, 15.2) · 9-112 (Ibrahim Takahashi, 16.0) · 10-128 (Charlie Hara-Hinze, 18.5)
Recorded target: 156 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 18/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 25/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 32/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 35/4 |
| 8 | 9 | 44/5 |
| 9 | 9 | 53/5 |
| 10 | 8 | 61/6 |
| 11 | 6 | 67/6 |
| 12 | 4 | 71/7 |
| 13 | 11 | 82/7 |
| 14 | 8 | 90/7 |
| 15 | 11 | 101/7 |
| 16 | 11 | 112/9 |
| 17 | 2 | 114/9 |
| 18 | 11 | 125/9 |
| 19 | 3 | 128/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.