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East Asia Cup · 2023/24 · Men
15 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Hong Kong started on 73%; Hong Kong batted first.
Hong Kong's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (Japan: 0% to 67%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Atkinsoncaught · W Miyauchi · R Sakurano-Thomas 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · W Miyauchi · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 10 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Nizakat Khancaught · R Sakurano-Thomas · D Suzuki 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Sakurano-Thomas · b D Suzuki | 13 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Anshuman Rathcaught · L Yamamoto-Lake · S Ravichandran 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · L Yamamoto-Lake · b S Ravichandran | 11 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 137.50 |
| Babar Hayatstumped · W Miyauchi · S Ravichandran 2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · W Miyauchi · b S Ravichandran | 12 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Aizaz Khanlbw · S Ravichandran 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b S Ravichandran | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Yasim Murtazacaught · R Sakurano-Thomas · D Suzuki 5 fours · 2 sixes |
|---|
| caught · R Sakurano-Thomas · b D Suzuki |
| 48 |
| 26 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 184.62 |
| Zeeshan Alicaught · Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming · S Ravichandran 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming · b S Ravichandran | 40 | 32 | 3 | 2 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Ehsan Khancaught · R Sakurano-Thomas · D Suzuki 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Sakurano-Thomas · b D Suzuki | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Anas Khancaught · W Miyauchi · S Ravichandran 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · W Miyauchi · b S Ravichandran | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Ateeq Iqbalnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Dhananjay Raobowled · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Sakurano-Thomas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.4 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 4.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Hara-Hinze0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
| D Suzuki0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 3 | 9.25 | 1 | 0 |
| S Ravichandran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 5 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| R Drake0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Ibrahim Takahashi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| K Kato-Stafford0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-16 (James Atkinson, 3.0) · 2-27 (Nizakat Khan, 4.4) · 3-46 (Anshuman Rath, 6.0) · 4-53 (Babar Hayat, 7.3) · 5-54 (Aizaz Khan, 8.0) · 6-137 (Yasim Murtaza, 16.5) · 7-145 (Zeeshan Ali, 17.3) · 8-145 (Anas Khan, 17.5) · 9-148 (Ehsan Khan, 18.3) · 10-155 (Dhananjay Rao, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 15 | 36/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 46/3 |
| 7 | 7 | 53/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 54/5 |
| 9 | 6 | 60/5 |
| 10 | 2 | 62/5 |
| 11 | 11 | 73/5 |
| 12 | 9 | 82/5 |
| 13 | 12 | 94/5 |
| 14 | 6 | 100/5 |
| 15 | 12 | 112/5 |
| 16 | 18 | 130/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 137/6 |
| 18 | 9 | 146/8 |
| 19 | 4 | 150/9 |
| 20 | 5 | 155/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.