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Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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New Zealand tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
10 Nov 2024 · T20
Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 45%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 7% to 81% during the match (Sri Lanka: 19% to 93%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · HM Nicholls · Glenn Phillips 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HM Nicholls · b Glenn Phillips | 52 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 101.96 |
| Kusal Mendisbowled · Mitchell Santner 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Santner | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Mitchell Hay · Lockie Ferguson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Lockie Ferguson | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
| Kamindu Mendislbw · Lockie Ferguson 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lockie Ferguson | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Mitchell Hay · Lockie Ferguson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Lockie Ferguson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Bhanuka Rajapaksacaught · Mitchell Hay · Michael Bracewell 1 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Mitchell Hay · b Michael Bracewell |
| 15 |
| 13 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 115.38 |
 Wanindu Hasarangacaught · HM Nicholls · Zakary Foulkes0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HM Nicholls · b Zakary Foulkes | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagecaught · Mitchell Hay · Michael Bracewell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Michael Bracewell | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Mitchell Hay · Glenn Phillips 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Glenn Phillips | 14 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Matheesha Pathiranastumped · Mitchell Hay · Glenn Phillips 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Mitchell Hay · b Glenn Phillips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nuwan Thusharanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 2 | 1 |
 Lockie Ferguson0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3.50 | 2 | 1 |
 Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.5 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3.27 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Kusal Mendis, 2.1) · 2-24 (Kushal Janith Perera, 6.0) · 3-34 (Kamindu Mendis, 7.1) · 4-34 (Charith Asalanka, 7.2) · 5-63 (Bhanuka Rajapaksa, 11.3) · 6-74 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 13.2) · 7-82 (Dunith Wellalage, 15.5) · 8-102 (Pathum Nissanka, 19.2) · 9-102 (Matheesha Pathirana, 19.3) · 10-103 (Mahesh Theekshana, 19.5)
Recorded target: 109 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 12/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 24/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 34/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 36/4 |
| 9 | 9 | 45/4 |
| 10 | 10 | 55/4 |
| 11 | 8 | 63/4 |
| 12 | 1 | 64/5 |
| 13 | 4 | 68/5 |
| 14 | 6 | 74/6 |
| 15 | 3 | 77/6 |
| 16 | 6 | 83/7 |
| 17 | 4 | 87/7 |
| 18 | 6 | 93/7 |
| 19 | 8 | 101/7 |
| 20 | 2 | 103/10 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lockie Ferguson: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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