New ZealandversusSri Lanka

10 Nov 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 5 runs

New Zealand19.3 overs108/10 Sri Lanka19.5 overs103/10 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

49%New Zealand51%Sri Lanka

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 7 and Sri Lanka won 3
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than New Zealand (1,596 vs 1,576 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 45%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 7% to 81% during the match (Sri Lanka: 19% to 93%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.5: MG Bracewell to DN Wellalage, DN Wellalage out. New Zealand up from 22% to 45%.
2nd inns 19.2: GD Phillips to P Nissanka, P Nissanka out. New Zealand up from 37% to 59%.
2nd inns 19.3: GD Phillips to M Pathirana, M Pathirana out. New Zealand up from 59% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand108/10 Sri Lanka103/10

Innings 1

New Zealand

108/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tim Robinsonbowled · Nuwan Thushara 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nuwan Thushara	0	1	0	0	0.00
Will Youngstumped · Kusal Mendis · Wanindu Hasaranga 3 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Wanindu Hasaranga	30	32	3	0	93.75
Mark Chapmancaught · Kamindu Mendis · Nuwan Thushara 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Nuwan Thushara	2	6	0	0	33.33
Glenn Phillipsbowled · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Wanindu Hasaranga	4	9	0	0	44.44
Michael Bracewellbowled · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	2	5.50	2
Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	0	16	1	4.57	0
Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	0	6.50	0
Wanindu Hasaranga1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	4	4.25	0
Matheesha Pathirana1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	3	2.75	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	4	6/1
3	2	8/2
4	7	15/2
5	10	25/2
6	8	33/2
7	4	37/4
8	4	41/4
9	7	48/5
10	2	50/5
11	3	53/6
12	4	57/6
13	7	64/6
14	3	67/6
15	8	75/6
16	9	84/6
17	5	89/7
18	12	101/7
19	3	104/9
20	4	108/10

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