NottinghamshireversusLeicestershire

28 Jun 2026 · T20

Grace Road, Leicester · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nottinghamshire won by 74 runs

Nottinghamshire20.0 overs209/4 Leicestershire17.5 overs135/10 Grace Road, Leicester ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 49%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Leicestershire is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Leicestershire: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

5.2: AM Green to JM Clarke, JM Clarke out. Leicestershire up from 24% to 32%.
7.4: BGF Green to JA Haynes, JA Haynes out. Leicestershire up from 23% to 29%.
2nd inns 0.5: Mohammad Amir to RK Patel, RK Patel out. Nottinghamshire up from 76% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.