SurreyversusSussex

18 Jun 2025 · T20

The Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Surrey won by 48 runs

Surrey20.0 overs210/6 Sussex19.5 overs162/10 The Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Surrey started on 53%; Surrey batted first.

Surrey’s chance of winning (%) · Sussex is the rest

Surrey's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (Sussex: 0% to 47%).

Biggest swings

4.5: TS Mills to WG Jacks, WG Jacks out. Sussex up from 24% to 32%.
5.4: BJ Currie to JJ Roy, JJ Roy out. Sussex up from 28% to 36%.
2nd inns 0.6: RJW Topley to GW Thomas, GW Thomas out. Surrey up from 78% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.