NetherlandsversusItaly

20 Aug 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 43 runs

Netherlands20.0 overs157/7 Italy20.0 overs114/8 Hazelaarweg, Rotterdam ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

80%Netherlands20%Italy

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Italy (1,650 vs 1,545 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 4 and Italy won 0
Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 78%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Italy is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Italy: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

0.4: C Mahamalage to HDJ Siegers, HDJ Siegers out. Italy up from 21% to 28%.
5.4: S Kanankege to P Molkenboer, P Molkenboer out. Italy up from 21% to 25%.
2nd inns 1.2: HDJ Siegers to M Rathnayake, M Rathnayake out. Netherlands up from 91% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands157/7 Italy114/8

Innings 2

Italy

114/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Italy batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
M Rathnayakecaught · P Molkenboer · Heather Siegers 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · P Molkenboer · b Heather Siegers	0	7	0	0	0.00
D Nanayakkaralbw · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Iris Zwilling	1	4	0	0	25.00
A Kontopirakisbowled · I van der Woning 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b I van der Woning	12	24	0	0	50.00
EL Bartramcaught · MIW van den Raad · Iris Zwilling 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · MIW van den Raad · b Iris Zwilling	9	5	2	0	180.00
Chloe Piparocaught · Robine Rijke · Caroline de Lange 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Robine Rijke

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Iris Zwilling1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	23	2	5.75	0	0
Heather Siegers0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	1	4.25	1	0
Robine Rijke0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	14	0	7.00	1	0
Caroline de Lange1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	16	1	4.00	2	0
I van der Woning0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	2	6.33	3	0
Silver Siegers0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls	3.0	0	23	1	7.67	1	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	2	2/1
3	9	11/2
4	4	15/2
5	5	20/3
6	3	23/3
7	0	23/3
8	9	32/3
9	7	39/3
10	7	46/3
11	5	51/3
12	10	61/3
13	4	65/4
14	5	70/4
15	12	82/4
16	5	87/4
17	9	96/4
18	4	100/5
19	9	109/6
20	5	114/8

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.