SomersetversusDerbyshire

8 Jul 2026 · T20

The County Ground, Derby · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Somerset won by 27 runs

Somerset20.0 overs214/6 Derbyshire20.0 overs187/7 The County Ground, Derby ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Somerset started on 61%; Somerset batted first.

Somerset’s chance of winning (%) · Derbyshire is the rest

Somerset's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (Derbyshire: 0% to 47%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.1: JT Ball to MK Andersson, MK Andersson out. Somerset up from 57% to 69%.
2nd inns 5.6: C Overton to AHT Donald, AHT Donald out. Somerset up from 57% to 69%.
2nd inns 10.1: DR Sams to HRC Came, HRC Came out. Somerset up from 53% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.