Brisbane HeatversusHobart Hurricanes

14 Jan 2026 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Brisbane Heat won by 3 runs

Brisbane Heat20.0 overs160/8 Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs157/8 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Brisbane Heat started on 37%; Brisbane Heat batted first.

Brisbane Heat’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Brisbane Heat's chances ranged from 1% to 75% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 25% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.4: Zaman Khan to Nikhil Chaudhary, 0 runs to Nikhil Chaudhary. Brisbane Heat up from 38% to 55%.
2nd inns 19.5: Zaman Khan to Nikhil Chaudhary, Nikhil Chaudhary out. Brisbane Heat up from 55% to 75%.
2nd inns 19.6: Zaman Khan to Rishad Hossain, 1 run to Rishad Hossain. Brisbane Heat up from 75% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.