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United Arab Emirates T20I Tri-Series · 2025 · Men
4 Sept 2025 · T20
Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United Arab Emirates more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 37%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 18% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 82%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alishan Sharafucaught · Salman Ali Agha · Shaheen Afridi4 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Shaheen Afridi | 68 | 51 | 4 | 4 | 133.33 |
| Waseem Muhammadcaught · Fahim Ashraf · Abrar Ahmed 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Fahim Ashraf · b Abrar Ahmed | 19 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Ethan Carl D'Souzacaught · Saim Ayub · Mohammad Nawaz 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Mohammad Nawaz | 9 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 64.29 |
| Asif Khancaught · Shaheen Afridi · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi · b Abrar Ahmed | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 140.00 |
| Rahul Chopralbw · Abrar Ahmed0 fours · 0 sixes |
| lbw · b Abrar Ahmed |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| H Kaushikcaught · Fahim Ashraf · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fahim Ashraf · b Abrar Ahmed | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| D Parasharnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 18* | 15 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Haider Alirun out · Salman Ali Agha, Fahim Ashraf · Fahim Ashraf 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Salman Ali Agha, Fahim Ashraf | 12 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Salman Mirza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-41 (Waseem Muhammad, 6.1) · 2-72 (Ethan Carl D'Souza, 11.0) · 3-84 (Asif Khan, 12.3) · 4-84 (Rahul Chopra, 12.5) · 5-102 (H Kaushik, 15.0) · 6-113 (Alishan Sharafu, 17.0) · 7-132 (Haider Ali, 19.3)
Recorded target: 172 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 11 | 41/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 44/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 49/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 54/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 58/1 |
| 11 | 14 | 72/2 |
| 12 | 11 | 83/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 84/4 |
| 14 | 14 | 98/4 |
| 15 | 4 | 102/5 |
| 16 | 8 | 110/5 |
| 17 | 3 | 113/6 |
| 18 | 6 | 119/6 |
| 19 | 10 | 129/6 |
| 20 | 11 | 140/7 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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