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Photo: St Kitts & Nevis Government; permission: https://www.flickr.com/photos/skngov/14733563912
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia Women tour of West Indies · 2025/26 · Women
29 Mar 2026 · ODI
Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 90%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qiana Josephcaught and bowled · Ashleigh Gardner 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Ashleigh Gardner | 29 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 72.50 |
 Hayley Matthewscaught · Megan Schutt · Tahlia McGrath6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Megan Schutt · b Tahlia McGrath | 45 | 73 | 6 | 0 | 61.64 |
 Stafanie Taylorbowled · Georgia Wareham0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Georgia Wareham | 18 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 56.25 |
 Deandra Dottincaught · Phoebe Litchfield · Georgia Wareham0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Phoebe Litchfield · b Georgia Wareham |
Australia's chances ranged from 77% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 23%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Chinelle Henrycaught · Kim Garth · Ashleigh Gardner1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kim Garth · b Ashleigh Gardner | 19 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Jannillea Glasgowbowled · Ashleigh Gardner 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ashleigh Gardner | 8 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 34.78 |
|---|
 Shemaine Campbellerun out · Alana King · Ashleigh Gardner0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Alana King | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Jahzara Claxtonlbw · Alana King 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Alana King | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
 Afy Fletchernot out5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 32* | 28 | 5 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
| Ashmini Munisarlbw · Georgia Wareham 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Georgia Wareham | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Karishma Ramharackcaught · Georgia Voll · Tahlia McGrath1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Voll · b Tahlia McGrath | 14 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 31.11 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Megan Schutt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Kim Garth0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 5.67 | 2 | 2 |
 Alana King0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashleigh Gardner1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 34 | 3 | 3.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 2.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Tahlia McGrath1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 2.14 | 0 | 0 |
1-57 (Qiana Joseph, 11.4) · 2-94 (Hayley Matthews, 24.0) · 3-94 (Stafanie Taylor, 24.1) · 4-95 (Deandra Dottin, 25.0) · 5-121 (Chinelle Henry, 31.2) · 6-122 (Shemaine Campbelle, 31.4) · 7-125 (Jahzara Claxton, 33.0) · 8-125 (Jannillea Glasgow, 33.1) · 9-130 (Ashmini Munisar, 34.4) · 10-179 (Karishma Ramharack, 46.0)
Recorded target: 270 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 18/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 28/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 33/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 38/0 |
| 10 | 10 | 48/0 |
| 11 | 8 | 56/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 58/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 60/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 64/1 |
| 15 | 7 | 71/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 74/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 77/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 83/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 84/1 |
| 20 | 3 | 87/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 89/1 |
| 22 | 2 | 91/1 |
| 23 | 1 | 92/1 |
| 24 | 2 | 94/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 95/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 97/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 99/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 104/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 109/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 113/4 |
| 31 | 8 | 121/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 122/6 |
| 33 | 3 | 125/7 |
| 34 | 0 | 125/8 |
| 35 | 5 | 130/9 |
| 36 | 3 | 133/9 |
| 37 | 9 | 142/9 |
| 38 | 1 | 143/9 |
| 39 | 6 | 149/9 |
| 40 | 2 | 151/9 |
| 41 | 2 | 153/9 |
| 42 | 14 | 167/9 |
| 43 | 8 | 175/9 |
| 44 | 0 | 175/9 |
| 45 | 3 | 178/9 |
| 46 | 1 | 179/10 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Deandra Dottin: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nicola Carey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Georgia Voll: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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