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Photo: St Kitts & Nevis Government; permission: https://www.flickr.com/photos/skngov/14733563912
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia Women tour of West Indies · 2025/26 · Women
29 Mar 2026 · ODI
Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 90%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Georgia Vollcaught · Chinelle Henry · Ashmini Munisar3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chinelle Henry · b Ashmini Munisar | 23 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 95.83 |
 Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Chinelle Henry · Hayley Matthews6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chinelle Henry · b Hayley Matthews | 46 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 97.87 |
 Ellyse Perrycaught and bowled · Ashmini Munisar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Ashmini Munisar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 |
Australia's chances ranged from 77% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 23%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Jannillea Glasgow · b Hayley Matthews |
| 65 |
| 104 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 62.50 |
 Ashleigh Gardnerbowled · Hayley Matthews0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hayley Matthews | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
 Tahlia McGrathbowled · Afy Fletcher1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Afy Fletcher | 24 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 64.86 |
|---|
 Georgia Warehamcaught · Jahzara Claxton · Afy Fletcher4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jahzara Claxton · b Afy Fletcher | 39 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 105.41 |
|---|
 Nicola Careynot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 30* | 25 | 3 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
 Alana Kingnot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 26* | 17 | 2 | 1 | 152.94 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deandra Dottin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 8.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Ashmini Munisar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 3 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 4.80 | 2 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 4.40 | 1 | 0 |
1-64 (Georgia Voll, 10.4) · 2-64 (Ellyse Perry, 10.5) · 3-74 (Phoebe Litchfield, 13.5) · 4-82 (Ashleigh Gardner, 15.5) · 5-140 (Tahlia McGrath, 30.5) · 6-210 (Georgia Wareham, 42.4) · 7-214 (Beth Mooney, 43.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 13 | 33/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 39/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 45/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 50/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 55/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 56/0 |
| 10 | 6 | 62/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 64/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 69/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 73/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 76/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 80/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 82/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 88/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 90/4 |
| 19 | 5 | 95/4 |
| 20 | 5 | 100/4 |
| 21 | 8 | 108/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 112/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 114/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 118/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 119/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 122/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 124/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 126/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 129/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 135/4 |
| 31 | 7 | 142/5 |
| 32 | 3 | 145/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 149/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 151/5 |
| 35 | 9 | 160/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 164/5 |
| 37 | 6 | 170/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 175/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 179/5 |
| 40 | 8 | 187/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 192/5 |
| 42 | 12 | 204/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 212/6 |
| 44 | 2 | 214/7 |
| 45 | 5 | 219/7 |
| 46 | 6 | 225/7 |
| 47 | 13 | 238/7 |
| 48 | 6 | 244/7 |
| 49 | 8 | 252/7 |
| 50 | 17 | 269/7 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Deandra Dottin: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nicola Carey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Georgia Voll: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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