ScotlandversusEngland

13 Oct 2024 · T20

Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 10 wickets

Scotland20.0 overs109/6 England10.0 overs113/0 Sharjah Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

17%Scotland83%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Scotland (1,785 vs 1,526 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 16%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 24% during the match (England: 76% to 100%).

Biggest swings

7.6: NR Sciver-Brunt to S Horley, S Horley out. England up from 78% to 81%.
10.4: S Ecclestone to SJ Bryce, SJ Bryce out. England up from 80% to 83%.
12.5: S Glenn to A Lister, six by A Lister. Scotland up from 17% to 20%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland109/6 England113/0

Innings 1

Scotland

109/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Saskia Horleycaught · Sophie Ecclestone · Nat Sciver-Brunt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sophie Ecclestone · b Nat Sciver-Brunt	13	23	0	0	56.52
Sarah Brycestumped · Amy Jones · Sophie Ecclestone 3 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Amy Jones · b Sophie Ecclestone	27	31	3	0	87.10
Kathryn Brycebowled · Charlie Dean 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Charlie Dean	33	28	4	0	117.86
Ailsa Listercaught · Heather Knight · Danielle Gibson 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Heather Knight · b Danielle Gibson	11	14	0	1	78.57
Lorna Jackbowled · Lauren Bell 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Lauren Bell	0	3	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nat Sciver-Brunt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0
Lauren Bell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	1	4.00	0
Charlie Dean0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	1
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	2	3.25	0
Sarah Glenn0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00	0
Danielle Gibson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	5	1	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	2	7/0
3	7	14/0
4	2	16/0
5	9	25/0
6	4	29/0
7	5	34/0
8	4	38/1
9	8	46/1
10	3	49/1
11	2	51/2
12	2	53/2
13	11	64/2
14	7	71/2
15	5	76/3
16	6	82/4
17	7	89/5
18	5	94/6
19	9	103/6
20	6	109/6

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