MiddlesexversusKent

13 Jul 2025 · T20

St Lawrence Ground, Canterbury · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kent won by 7 wickets

Middlesex20.0 overs160/5 Kent18.1 overs165/3 St Lawrence Ground, Canterbury ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Middlesex started on 41%; Middlesex batted first.

Middlesex’s chance of winning (%) · Kent is the rest

Middlesex's chances ranged from 0% to 46% during the match (Kent: 54% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: FJ Klaassen to SS Eskinazi, SS Eskinazi out. Kent up from 56% to 68%.
4.3: FJ Klaassen to BBA Geddes, BBA Geddes out. Kent up from 63% to 72%.
7.1: JA Leaning to KS Williamson, KS Williamson out. Kent up from 71% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.