**Centurion Park**
Photo: shodan
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Pretoria CapitalsversusPaarl Royals

18 Jan 2025 · T20

Centurion Park · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Paarl Royals won by 8 wickets

Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs212/5 Paarl Royals19.4 overs213/2 Centurion Park ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pretoria Capitals started on 50%; Pretoria Capitals batted first.

Pretoria Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Pretoria Capitals's chances ranged from 3% to 87% during the match (Paarl Royals: 13% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2.1: E Malinga to WG Jacks, WG Jacks out. Paarl Royals up from 41% to 53%.
2nd inns 11.4: JDS Neesham to RA Herman, RA Herman out. Pretoria Capitals up from 36% to 50%.
2nd inns 14.1: JDS Neesham to DA Miller, six by DA Miller. Paarl Royals up from 57% to 67%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pretoria Capitals212/5 Paarl Royals213/2

Innings 2

Paarl Royals

213/219.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Paarl Royals batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
LG Pretoriuscaught and bowled · Will Jacks 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Will Jacks	0	1	0	0	0.00
Joe Rootnot out 11 fours · 2 sixes	not out	92*	60	11	2	153.33
Rubin Hermanncaught · Marques Ackerman · James Neesham 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Marques Ackerman · b James Neesham	56	33	5	3	169.70
David Millernot out 4 fours · 2 sixes	not out	48*	24	4	2	200.00
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	0
Eathan Bosch0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	0	9.00	3
Migael Pretorius0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	0	9.67	0
Tiaan van Vuuren0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	51	0	12.75	0
Senuran Muthusamy0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	26	0	13.00	5
James Neesham0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	40	1	10.91	2

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Pretoria CapitalsversusPaarl Royals

Paarl Royals won by 8 wickets

How the win chances moved

Biggest swings

Paarl Royals

Fall of wickets

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	6	10/1
3	11	21/1
4	8	29/1
5	15	44/1
6	14	58/1
7	13	71/1
8	4	75/1
9	15	90/1
10	11	101/1
11	13	114/1
12	13	127/2
13	9	136/2
14	8	144/2
15	15	159/2
16	14	173/2
17	13	186/2
18	10	196/2
19	9	205/2
20	8	213/2