**Centurion Park**
Photo: shodan
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Pretoria CapitalsversusPaarl Royals

18 Jan 2025 · T20

Centurion Park · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Paarl Royals won by 8 wickets

Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs212/5 Paarl Royals19.4 overs213/2 Centurion Park ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pretoria Capitals started on 50%; Pretoria Capitals batted first.

Pretoria Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Pretoria Capitals's chances ranged from 3% to 87% during the match (Paarl Royals: 13% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2.1: E Malinga to WG Jacks, WG Jacks out. Paarl Royals up from 41% to 53%.
2nd inns 11.4: JDS Neesham to RA Herman, RA Herman out. Pretoria Capitals up from 36% to 50%.
2nd inns 14.1: JDS Neesham to DA Miller, six by DA Miller. Paarl Royals up from 57% to 67%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.