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India tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Men
14 Dec 2024 · Test
Brisbane Cricket Ground · Venue photographAustralia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yashasvi Jaiswalcaught · Mitchell Marsh · Mitchell Starc1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Mitchell Starc | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
 KL Rahulcaught · Steve Smith · Nathan Lyon8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Nathan Lyon | 84 | 139 | 8 | 0 | 60.43 |
 Shubman Gillcaught · Mitchell Marsh · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Mitchell Starc | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood |
| 3 |
| 16 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 18.75 |
 Rishabh Pantcaught · Alex Carey · Pat Cummins0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins | 9 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Alex Carey · Pat Cummins2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins | 10 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 37.04 |
|---|
 Ravindra Jadejacaught · Mitchell Marsh · Pat Cummins7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Pat Cummins | 77 | 123 | 7 | 1 | 62.60 |
|---|
 Nitish Kumar Reddybowled · Pat Cummins1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pat Cummins | 16 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 26.23 |
|---|
 Mohammed Sirajcaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 |
|---|
 Jasprit Bumrahnot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 10* | 38 | 0 | 1 | 26.32 |
|---|
| Akash Deepstumped · Alex Carey · Travis Head 2 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Alex Carey · b Travis Head | 31 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 70.45 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 1 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc3 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 24.0 | 3 | 83 | 3 | 3.46 | 1 | 1 |
 Josh Hazlewood2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 3.67 | 0 | 1 |
 Pat Cummins2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 22.0 | 2 | 81 | 4 | 3.68 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.0 | 1 | 55 | 1 | 2.39 | 0 | 0 |
 Travis Head0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.64 | 0 | 0 |
 Mitchell Marsh0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-4 (Yashasvi Jaiswal, 0.2) · 2-6 (Shubman Gill, 2.1) · 3-22 (Virat Kohli, 7.2) · 4-44 (Rishabh Pant, 13.5) · 5-74 (Rohit Sharma, 23.3) · 6-141 (KL Rahul, 42.3) · 7-194 (Nitish Kumar Reddy, 59.5) · 8-201 (Mohammed Siraj, 63.0) · 9-213 (Ravindra Jadeja, 66.0) · 10-260 (Akash Deep, 78.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 7/2 |
| 4 | 0 | 7/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 9/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 19/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 21/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 26/3 |
| 9 | 0 | 26/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 28/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 32/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 34/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 39/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 44/4 |
| 15 | 5 | 49/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 50/4 |
| 17 | 1 | 51/4 |
| 18 | 1 | 52/4 |
| 19 | 3 | 55/4 |
| 20 | 0 | 55/4 |
| 21 | 6 | 61/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 66/4 |
| 23 | 8 | 74/4 |
| 24 | 0 | 74/5 |
| 25 | 9 | 83/5 |
| 26 | 5 | 88/5 |
| 27 | 6 | 94/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 96/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 100/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 103/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 105/5 |
| 32 | 4 | 109/5 |
| 33 | 7 | 116/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 117/5 |
| 35 | 6 | 123/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 126/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 130/5 |
| 38 | 1 | 131/5 |
| 39 | 1 | 132/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 136/5 |
| 41 | 4 | 140/5 |
| 42 | 1 | 141/5 |
| 43 | 4 | 145/6 |
| 44 | 7 | 152/6 |
| 45 | 6 | 158/6 |
| 46 | 2 | 160/6 |
| 47 | 1 | 161/6 |
| 48 | 4 | 165/6 |
| 49 | 2 | 167/6 |
| 50 | 9 | 176/6 |
| 51 | 2 | 178/6 |
| 52 | 2 | 180/6 |
| 53 | 3 | 183/6 |
| 54 | 1 | 184/6 |
| 55 | 2 | 186/6 |
| 56 | 0 | 186/6 |
| 57 | 2 | 188/6 |
| 58 | 3 | 191/6 |
| 59 | 1 | 192/6 |
| 60 | 2 | 194/7 |
| 61 | 1 | 195/7 |
| 62 | 6 | 201/7 |
| 63 | 0 | 201/8 |
| 64 | 1 | 202/8 |
| 65 | 7 | 209/8 |
| 66 | 4 | 213/9 |
| 67 | 2 | 215/9 |
| 68 | 6 | 221/9 |
| 69 | 1 | 222/9 |
| 70 | 3 | 225/9 |
| 71 | 7 | 232/9 |
| 72 | 2 | 234/9 |
| 73 | 7 | 241/9 |
| 74 | 1 | 242/9 |
| 75 | 10 | 252/9 |
| 76 | 4 | 256/9 |
| 77 | 1 | 257/9 |
| 78 | 1 | 258/9 |
| 79 | 2 | 260/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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