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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025/26 · Men
30 Oct 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 60%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alishan Sharafucaught · Rohit Kumar · Karan KC6 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Rohit Kumar · b Karan KC | 45 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 173.08 |
| Aryansh Sharmacaught and bowled · Sandeep Lamichhane 10 fours · 3 sixes | caught and bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 98 | 98 | 10 | 3 | 100.00 |
| Sohaib Khancaught · Sompal Kami · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sompal Kami · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Rahul Chopraretired hurt · Dipendra Singh Airee 2 fours · 0 sixes | retired hurt | 15* | 24 | 2 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Waseem Muhammadrun out · Kushal Bhurtel, Rohit Kumar · Kushal Bhurtel1 fours · 1 sixes |
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 26% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Kushal Bhurtel, Rohit Kumar |
| 26 |
| 46 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 56.52 |
| H Kaushikcaught · Gulsan Jha · Dipendra Singh Airee 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Gulsan Jha · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 13 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 72.22 |
|---|
| D Parasharnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 16* | 19 | 1 | 0 | 84.21 |
|---|
| Zahid Alinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 19 | 0 | 0 | 57.89 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 10 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 4.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.3 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 6.47 | 0 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 43 | 0 | 10.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 3.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Aarif Sheikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 3.57 | 0 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-63 (Alishan Sharafu, 8.2) · 2-64 (Sohaib Khan, 11.3) · 3-194 (Waseem Muhammad, 33.5) · 4-195 (Aryansh Sharma, 34.2) · 5-218 (H Kaushik, 39.2)
Recorded target: 234 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 22 | 47/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 51/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 61/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 62/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 63/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 63/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 63/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 64/2 |
| 13 | 10 | 74/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 83/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 89/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 93/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 95/2 |
| 18 | 9 | 104/2 |
| 19 | 8 | 112/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 118/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 121/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 123/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 125/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 131/2 |
| 25 | 2 | 133/2 |
| 26 | 1 | 134/2 |
| 27 | 8 | 142/2 |
| 28 | 9 | 151/2 |
| 29 | 6 | 157/2 |
| 30 | 7 | 164/2 |
| 31 | 11 | 175/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 179/2 |
| 33 | 6 | 185/2 |
| 34 | 9 | 194/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 196/4 |
| 36 | 6 | 202/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 206/4 |
| 38 | 2 | 208/4 |
| 39 | 10 | 218/4 |
| 40 | 0 | 218/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 219/5 |
| 42 | 8 | 227/5 |
| 43 | 3 | 230/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 237/5 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
