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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025/26 · Men
30 Oct 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 60%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelbowled · Haider Ali1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Haider Ali | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · D Parashar · Junaid Siddique 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Parashar · b Junaid Siddique | 35 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 72.92 |
| B Sharkilbw · Muhammad Rohid 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Muhammad Rohid | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 23.08 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Aryansh Sharma · Zahid Ali5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Aryansh Sharma · b Zahid Ali | 109 | 130 | 5 | 2 | 83.85 |
 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 26% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Junaid Siddique |
| 27 |
| 42 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 64.29 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireerun out · D Parashar · Junaid Siddique1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · D Parashar | 23 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 82.14 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhacaught · Aryansh Sharma · Junaid Siddique0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aryansh Sharma · b Junaid Siddique | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamihit wicket · Zahid Ali0 fours · 0 sixes | hit wicket · b Zahid Ali | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 46.15 |
|---|
 Karan KCcaught · D Parashar · Zahid Ali1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · D Parashar · b Zahid Ali | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 162.50 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshicaught · Waseem Muhammad · Zahid Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Zahid Ali | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 3 | 5.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Muhammad Rohid1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 3.70 | 2 | 0 |
| Haider Ali1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
| D Parashar1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Zahid Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 41 | 4 | 6.83 | 1 | 0 |
| H Kaushik0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-23 (Kushal Bhurtel, 4.1) · 2-26 (B Sharki, 7.3) · 3-61 (Aasif Sheikh, 17.1) · 4-131 (Aarif Sheikh, 32.4) · 5-185 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 41.2) · 6-186 (Gulsan Jha, 41.5) · 7-210 (Sompal Kami, 47.3) · 8-217 (Rohit Kumar, 48.0) · 9-233 (Karan KC, 49.5) · 10-233 (Lalit Rajbanshi, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 25/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 26/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 27/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 27/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 33/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 33/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 39/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 46/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 49/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 54/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 60/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 61/2 |
| 18 | 10 | 71/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 77/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 82/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 84/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 87/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 91/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 97/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 99/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 101/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 103/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 108/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 111/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 117/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 121/3 |
| 32 | 6 | 127/3 |
| 33 | 6 | 133/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 138/4 |
| 35 | 10 | 148/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 155/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 159/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 164/4 |
| 39 | 11 | 175/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 178/4 |
| 41 | 6 | 184/4 |
| 42 | 2 | 186/6 |
| 43 | 5 | 191/6 |
| 44 | 3 | 194/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 199/6 |
| 46 | 5 | 204/6 |
| 47 | 3 | 207/6 |
| 48 | 10 | 217/8 |
| 49 | 5 | 222/8 |
| 50 | 11 | 233/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
