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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of Zimbabwe · 2026 · Men
15 Sept 2026 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 69%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Josh Inglis · Nathan Ellis 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Nathan Ellis | 25 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 78.13 |
| Ben Currancaught · Nathan Ellis · Xavier Bartlett 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nathan Ellis · b Xavier Bartlett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Innocent Kaiacaught · Alex Carey · Nathan Ellis 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Nathan Ellis | 18 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 94.74 |
 Brendan Taylorcaught · Xavier Bartlett · Matt Renshaw0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Xavier Bartlett · b Matt Renshaw | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
 |
Australia's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 40%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Nathan Ellis |
| 59 |
| 60 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 98.33 |
 Sikandar Razabowled · Spencer Johnson5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Spencer Johnson | 57 | 76 | 5 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Wesley Madheverelbw · Cooper Connolly 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Cooper Connolly | 22 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 73.33 |
|---|
| Brad Evanscaught · Spencer Johnson · Adam Zampa 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Spencer Johnson · b Adam Zampa | 18 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 90.00 |
|---|
| Wellington Masakadzalbw · Nathan Ellis 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Ellis | 14 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 82.35 |
|---|
| Newman Nyamhuribowled · Nathan Ellis 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Ellis | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Blessing Muzarabaninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 9 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Johnson0 maidens · 1 wides · 3 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 4.89 | 1 | 3 |
| Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 5.13 | 2 | 0 |
| Nathan Ellis1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 1 | 31 | 5 | 3.38 | 5 | 0 |
 Matt Renshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Oliver Peake0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Ben Curran, 1.2) · 2-45 (Innocent Kaia, 8.2) · 3-46 (Brian Bennett, 9.0) · 4-62 (Brendan Taylor, 13.3) · 5-160 (Craig Ervine, 30.3) · 6-181 (Sikandar Raza, 36.0) · 7-199 (Wesley Madhevere, 39.1) · 8-227 (Wellington Masakadza, 43.1) · 9-235 (Brad Evans, 44.4) · 10-235 (Newman Nyamhuri, 45.1)
Recorded target: 295 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 29/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 39/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 44/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 46/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 48/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 54/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 60/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 61/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 63/4 |
| 15 | 0 | 63/4 |
| 16 | 14 | 77/4 |
| 17 | 2 | 79/4 |
| 18 | 6 | 85/4 |
| 19 | 4 | 89/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 91/4 |
| 21 | 9 | 100/4 |
| 22 | 9 | 109/4 |
| 23 | 7 | 116/4 |
| 24 | 10 | 126/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 130/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 134/4 |
| 27 | 5 | 139/4 |
| 28 | 8 | 147/4 |
| 29 | 7 | 154/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 158/4 |
| 31 | 6 | 164/5 |
| 32 | 5 | 169/5 |
| 33 | 1 | 170/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 175/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 178/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 181/6 |
| 37 | 8 | 189/6 |
| 38 | 6 | 195/6 |
| 39 | 4 | 199/6 |
| 40 | 2 | 201/7 |
| 41 | 6 | 207/7 |
| 42 | 11 | 218/7 |
| 43 | 9 | 227/7 |
| 44 | 2 | 229/8 |
| 45 | 6 | 235/9 |
| 46 | 0 | 235/10 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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