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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of Zimbabwe · 2026 · Men
15 Sept 2026 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 69%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Brian Bennett · Newman Nyamhuri6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Brian Bennett · b Newman Nyamhuri | 36 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 128.57 |
 Travis Headbowled · Brad Evans1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brad Evans | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Cooper Connollybowled · Sikandar Raza 4 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Sikandar Raza | 51 | 46 | 4 | 3 | 110.87 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Brendan Taylor · Newman Nyamhuri0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brendan Taylor · b Newman Nyamhuri | 4 | 12 |
Australia's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 40%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
 Alex Careycaught · RP Burl · Brad Evans1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · RP Burl · b Brad Evans | 27 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 50.94 |
|---|
 Matt Renshawcaught · Wesley Madhevere · Newman Nyamhuri7 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Wesley Madhevere · b Newman Nyamhuri | 109 | 94 | 7 | 3 | 115.96 |
|---|
 Oliver Peakehit wicket · Newman Nyamhuri1 fours · 1 sixes | hit wicket · b Newman Nyamhuri | 30 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Xavier Bartlettcaught · Craig Ervine · Newman Nyamhuri 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Craig Ervine · b Newman Nyamhuri | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Nathan Ellisnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
 Adam Zampanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 13 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 4.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Brad Evans0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 51 | 2 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Newman Nyamhuri0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 62 | 5 | 6.89 | 7 | 0 |
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 3 wides · 3 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 62 | 1 | 6.20 | 3 | 3 |
| Wesley Madhevere0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Bennett0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Travis Head, 1.5) · 2-60 (Mitchell Marsh, 9.0) · 3-83 (Josh Inglis, 13.0) · 4-107 (Cooper Connolly, 17.4) · 5-179 (Alex Carey, 31.3) · 6-254 (Oliver Peake, 43.0) · 7-269 (Xavier Bartlett, 45.5) · 8-288 (Matt Renshaw, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 13 | 30/1 |
| 5 | 12 | 42/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 47/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 52/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 53/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 60/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 65/2 |
| 11 | 13 | 78/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 81/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 83/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 84/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 86/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 88/3 |
| 17 | 10 | 98/3 |
| 18 | 9 | 107/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 113/4 |
| 20 | 5 | 118/4 |
| 21 | 7 | 125/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 130/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 135/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 140/4 |
| 25 | 7 | 147/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 150/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 152/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 155/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 158/4 |
| 30 | 9 | 167/4 |
| 31 | 11 | 178/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 181/5 |
| 33 | 7 | 188/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 189/5 |
| 35 | 9 | 198/5 |
| 36 | 10 | 208/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 210/5 |
| 38 | 12 | 222/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 225/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 228/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 231/5 |
| 42 | 10 | 241/5 |
| 43 | 13 | 254/6 |
| 44 | 8 | 262/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 266/6 |
| 46 | 4 | 270/7 |
| 47 | 5 | 275/7 |
| 48 | 8 | 283/7 |
| 49 | 3 | 286/7 |
| 50 | 8 | 294/8 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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