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ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Qualifier · 2026 · Men
8 May 2026 · T20
Fiji more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Vanuatu started on 45%; Vanuatu batted first.
Vanuatu's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (Fiji: 0% to 58%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Rasucaught · VM Waqavakatoga · J Baleicikoibia 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · VM Waqavakatoga · b J Baleicikoibia | 59 | 49 | 4 | 2 | 120.41 |
| Patrick Matautaavabowled · SM Tupou 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b SM Tupou | 18 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 150.00 |
| Andrew Mansalecaught · Metuisela Beitaki · J Baleicikoibia 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Metuisela Beitaki · b J Baleicikoibia | 49 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 148.48 |
| Nalin Nipikonot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 32* | 22 | 4 | 0 | 145.45 |
| W Woturun out · SM Tupou, Peni Vuniwaqa · Peni Vuniwaqa 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · SM Tupou, Peni Vuniwaqa | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Tabuisulu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Peni Vuniwaqa0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 9.50 | 3 | 0 |
| SM Tupou0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 1 | 0 |
| VM Waqavakatoga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 1 | 0 |
| P Dakainivanua0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| J Baleicikoibia0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-37 (Patrick Matautaava, 4.5) · 2-108 (Joshua Rasu, 14.0) · 3-139 (Andrew Mansale, 17.1) · 4-169 (W Wotu, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 38/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 44/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 50/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 58/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 67/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 73/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 80/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 89/1 |
| 13 | 14 | 103/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 108/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 118/2 |
| 16 | 15 | 133/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 139/2 |
| 18 | 9 | 148/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 154/3 |
| 20 | 15 | 169/4 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.