VanuatuversusFiji

8 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Vanuatu won by 121 runs

Vanuatu20.0 overs169/4 Fiji14.4 overs48/10 Korogi Sports Park ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Fiji more likely to win

46%Vanuatu54%Fiji

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Fiji rate stronger than Vanuatu (1,402 vs 1,358 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Vanuatu won 3 and Fiji won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Vanuatu started on 45%; Vanuatu batted first.

Vanuatu’s chance of winning (%) · Fiji is the rest

Vanuatu's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (Fiji: 0% to 58%).

Biggest swings

4.5: SM Tupou to PK Matautaava, PK Matautaava out. Fiji up from 42% to 51%.
2nd inns 0.3: D Wotu to M Beitaki, M Beitaki out. Vanuatu up from 55% to 68%.
2nd inns 3.1: N Venables to SM Tupou, N Acawei out. Vanuatu up from 66% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Vanuatu169/4 Fiji48/10

Innings 2

Fiji

48/1014.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Fiji batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
N Acaweirun out · JD Allan, N Venables · N Venables 1 fours · 1 sixes	run out · JD Allan, N Venables	13	13	1	1	100.00
Metuisela Beitakicaught · Patrick Matautaava · D Wotu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Patrick Matautaava · b D Wotu	0	1	0	0	0.00
SM Tupoulbw · Joshua Rasu 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Joshua Rasu	12	23	1	0	52.17
Peni Vuniwaqacaught · Clement Tommy · D Wotu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Clement Tommy · b D Wotu	1	3	0	0	33.33
V Veiqravicaught · Andrew Mansale · Williamsing Nalisa 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Andrew Mansale · b Williamsing Nalisa	9	16	0	1	56.25

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
D Wotu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	3	2	1.50	0
Joshua Rasu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	2	5.00	0
Patrick Matautaava0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	0	4.50	2
N Venables0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	0	3.50	1
Williamsing Nalisa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	6	3	1.64	0
Nalin Nipiko0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	1	6.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	8	9/1
3	5	14/1
4	2	16/2
5	2	18/3
6	4	22/3
7	1	23/3
8	9	32/3
9	3	35/4
10	2	37/4
11	6	43/5
12	2	45/8
13	2	47/8
14	1	48/8
15	0	48/10

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