Saudi ArabiaversusBhutan

22 Nov 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Saudi Arabia won by 85 runs

Saudi Arabia20.0 overs170/7 Bhutan20.0 overs85/8 University of Doha for Science and Technology ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Saudi Arabia more likely to win

73%Saudi Arabia27%Bhutan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Saudi Arabia rate stronger than Bhutan (1,461 vs 1,351 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Saudi Arabia won 2 and Bhutan won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Saudi Arabia started on 72%; Saudi Arabia batted first.

Saudi Arabia’s chance of winning (%) · Bhutan is the rest

Saudi Arabia's chances ranged from 71% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 29%).

Biggest swings

1.1: T Wangchuk to Abdul Waheed, six by Abdul Waheed. Saudi Arabia up from 75% to 79%.
7.1: S Pradhan to Faisal Khan, Faisal Khan out. Bhutan up from 15% to 19%.
2nd inns 2.2: Ishtiaq Ahmad to Tenjin Rabgey, Tenjin Rabgey out. Saudi Arabia up from 86% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Saudi Arabia170/7 Bhutan85/8

Innings 2

Bhutan

85/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bhutan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Pradhanlbw · Shahzaib 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Shahzaib	11	20	1	0	55.00
Tenjin Rabgeycaught · Sidharth Sankar · Ishtiaq Ahmad 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sidharth Sankar · b Ishtiaq Ahmad	0	5	0	0	0.00
Thinley Jamtshocaught · Usman Khalid · Ishtiaq Ahmad 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Usman Khalid · b Ishtiaq Ahmad	0	1	0	0	0.00
Ranjung Mikyo Dorjibowled · Usman Najeeb 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Usman Najeeb	0	6	0	0	0.00
J Singyerun out · Usman Khalid · Abdul Waheed 2 fours · 2 sixes	run out · Usman Khalid	35	41	2	2	85.37

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ishtiaq Ahmad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	2	2	1.00	1
Usman Khalid2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	10	0	2.50	0
Usman Najeeb0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	2	5.00	0
Shahzaib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	1	6.00	0
Zain Ul Abidin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	1	4.25	0
Waji Ul Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	17	0	8.50	0
Abdul Waheed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	1	2.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	0	1/0
3	1	2/2
4	8	10/2
5	1	11/3
6	0	11/3
7	7	18/3
8	2	20/3
9	5	25/4
10	4	29/4
11	7	36/4
12	6	42/4
13	8	50/4
14	2	52/5
15	10	62/5
16	5	67/5
17	5	72/6
18	1	73/7
19	8	81/7
20	4	85/8

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