Saudi ArabiaversusBhutan

22 Nov 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Saudi Arabia won by 85 runs

Saudi Arabia20.0 overs170/7 Bhutan20.0 overs85/8 University of Doha for Science and Technology ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Saudi Arabia more likely to win

73%Saudi Arabia27%Bhutan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Saudi Arabia rate stronger than Bhutan (1,461 vs 1,351 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Saudi Arabia won 2 and Bhutan won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Saudi Arabia started on 72%; Saudi Arabia batted first.

Saudi Arabia’s chance of winning (%) · Bhutan is the rest

Saudi Arabia's chances ranged from 71% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 29%).

Biggest swings

1.1: T Wangchuk to Abdul Waheed, six by Abdul Waheed. Saudi Arabia up from 75% to 79%.
7.1: S Pradhan to Faisal Khan, Faisal Khan out. Bhutan up from 15% to 19%.
2nd inns 2.2: Ishtiaq Ahmad to Tenjin Rabgey, Tenjin Rabgey out. Saudi Arabia up from 86% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Saudi Arabia170/7 Bhutan85/8

Innings 1

Saudi Arabia

170/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Saudi Arabia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Abdul Waheedcaught · J Singye · S Pradhan 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · J Singye · b S Pradhan	18	15	1	1	120.00
Faisal Khancaught · J Singye · S Pradhan 3 fours · 4 sixes	caught · J Singye · b S Pradhan	42	20	3	4	210.00
Usman Khalidcaught · S Pradhan · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · S Pradhan · b Ranjung Mikyo Dorji	14	18	0	1	77.78
Waji Ul Hassancaught · Gakul Ghalley · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Gakul Ghalley · b Ranjung Mikyo Dorji	52	30	3	3	173.33
Manan Alistumped · Tshering Tashi · Sonam Yeshey 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Tshering Tashi · b Sonam Yeshey	12	15	0	0	80.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sonam Yeshey0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	1
T Wangchuk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	27	1	13.50	0
Namgay Thinley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	0	6.25	0
Karma Dorji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	26	0	26.00	0
S Pradhan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	2
Ranjung Mikyo Dorji0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	2	8.33	3
J Singye0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	19	26/0
3	4	30/0
4	26	56/0
5	2	58/0
6	2	60/1
7	4	64/1
8	3	67/2
9	11	78/2
10	12	90/2
11	7	97/3
12	7	104/3
13	6	110/3
14	12	122/3
15	6	128/3
16	12	140/4
17	4	144/5
18	6	150/6
19	12	162/6
20	8	170/7

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