Sydney ThunderversusMelbourne Renegades

30 Dec 2024 · T20

Sydney Showground Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Thunder won by 8 runs

Sydney Thunder20.0 overs156/4 Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs148/8 Sydney Showground Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sydney Thunder started on 52%; Sydney Thunder batted first.

Sydney Thunder’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Sydney Thunder's chances ranged from 29% to 99% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 1% to 71%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.5: CJ Green to J Fraser-McGurk, J Fraser-McGurk out. Sydney Thunder up from 63% to 77%.
2nd inns 13.4: WA Agar to MW Harvey, MW Harvey out. Sydney Thunder up from 58% to 74%.
2nd inns 13.5: WA Agar to W Sutherland, W Sutherland out. Sydney Thunder up from 74% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Melbourne Renegades chose to field
Player of the match: David Warner
match referees: Dave Gilbert
reserve umpires: D Taylor
tv umpires: MW Graham-Smith
umpires: GA Abood, Troy Penman

Match history & source

On 30 Dec 2024, Sydney Thunder played Melbourne Renegades at Sydney Showground Stadium. Recorded result: Sydney Thunder won by 8 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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