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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
1 Mar 2025 · ODI
National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 40%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (South Africa: 53% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltcaught · HE van der Dussen · Marco Jansen2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HE van der Dussen · b Marco Jansen | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 133.33 |
 Ben Duckettcaught and bowled · Marco Jansen4 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Marco Jansen | 24 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 114.29 |
 Jamie Smithcaught · Aiden Markram · Marco Jansen0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Marco Jansen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Joe Rootbowled · Wiaan Mulder4 fours · 1 sixes |
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Wiaan Mulder |
| 37 |
| 44 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 84.09 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Marco Jansen · Keshav Maharaj3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marco Jansen · b Keshav Maharaj | 19 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 65.52 |
|---|
 Jos Buttlercaught · Keshav Maharaj · Lungi Ngidi0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Keshav Maharaj · b Lungi Ngidi | 21 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 48.84 |
|---|
| Liam Livingstonestumped · Heinrich Klaasen · Keshav Maharaj 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Heinrich Klaasen · b Keshav Maharaj | 9 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · Lungi Ngidi · Kagiso Rabada1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lungi Ngidi · b Kagiso Rabada | 11 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 55.00 |
|---|
 Jofra Archercaught · Marco Jansen · Wiaan Mulder4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marco Jansen · b Wiaan Mulder | 25 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 80.65 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidcaught · Heinrich Klaasen · Wiaan Mulder0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Heinrich Klaasen · b Wiaan Mulder | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
 Saqib Mahmoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 12 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marco Jansen0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 5.57 | 6 | 0 |
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 4.71 | 0 | 0 |
 Kagiso Rabada1 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 6.00 | 1 | 1 |
 Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.2 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 3.41 | 5 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 35 | 2 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Philip Salt, 1.0) · 2-20 (Jamie Smith, 2.3) · 3-37 (Ben Duckett, 6.4) · 4-99 (Harry Brook, 16.5) · 5-103 (Joe Root, 17.3) · 6-114 (Liam Livingstone, 20.4) · 7-129 (Jamie Overton, 25.3) · 8-171 (Jofra Archer, 34.5) · 9-173 (Jos Buttler, 35.3) · 10-179 (Adil Rashid, 38.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/1 |
| 2 | 9 | 18/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 20/2 |
| 4 | 8 | 28/2 |
| 5 | 7 | 35/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 37/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 38/3 |
| 8 | 9 | 47/3 |
| 9 | 10 | 57/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 62/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 70/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 77/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 82/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 85/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 87/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 92/3 |
| 17 | 8 | 100/4 |
| 18 | 4 | 104/5 |
| 19 | 4 | 108/5 |
| 20 | 2 | 110/5 |
| 21 | 4 | 114/6 |
| 22 | 2 | 116/6 |
| 23 | 3 | 119/6 |
| 24 | 5 | 124/6 |
| 25 | 5 | 129/6 |
| 26 | 0 | 129/7 |
| 27 | 3 | 132/7 |
| 28 | 13 | 145/7 |
| 29 | 2 | 147/7 |
| 30 | 6 | 153/7 |
| 31 | 4 | 157/7 |
| 32 | 2 | 159/7 |
| 33 | 0 | 159/7 |
| 34 | 8 | 167/7 |
| 35 | 4 | 171/8 |
| 36 | 3 | 174/9 |
| 37 | 1 | 175/9 |
| 38 | 4 | 179/9 |
| 39 | 0 | 179/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
David Miller: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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