EnglandversusSouth Africa

1 Mar 2025 · ODI

National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 7 wickets

England38.2 overs179/10 South Africa29.1 overs181/3 National Stadium, Karachi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

43%England57%South Africa

Why

On results in ODIs so far, South Africa rate stronger than England (1,644 vs 1,598 on our results rating)
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, South Africa won 6 and England won 4

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 40%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

England's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (South Africa: 53% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: M Jansen to PD Salt, PD Salt out. South Africa up from 53% to 72%.
2.3: M Jansen to JL Smith, JL Smith out. South Africa up from 65% to 78%.
16.5: KA Maharaj to HC Brook, HC Brook out. South Africa up from 61% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

England179/10 South Africa181/3

Innings 2

South Africa

181/329.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ryan Rickeltonbowled · Jofra Archer 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jofra Archer	27	25	5	0	108.00
Tristan Stubbsbowled · Jofra Archer 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jofra Archer	0	5	0	0	0.00
HE van der Dussennot out 6 fours · 3 sixes	not out	72*	87	6	3	82.76
Heinrich Klaasencaught · Saqib Mahmood · Adil Rashid 11 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Saqib Mahmood · b Adil Rashid	64	56	11	0	114.29
David Millernot out0 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jofra Archer0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls	9.0	55	2	6.11	9
Saqib Mahmood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	31	0	6.20	1
Jamie Overton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	34	0	6.80	0
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	37	1	5.29	1
Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	24	0	7.58	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	6	11/0
3	5	16/1
4	8	24/1
5	5	29/1
6	6	35/1
7	3	38/1
8	5	43/1
9	9	52/2
10	6	58/2
11	1	59/2
12	6	65/2
13	4	69/2
14	9	78/2
15	3	81/2
16	8	89/2
17	6	95/2
18	2	97/2
19	5	102/2
20	9	111/2
21	9	120/2
22	3	123/2
23	14	137/2
24	2	139/2
25	12	151/2
26	8	159/2
27	7	166/2
28	8	174/2
29	1	175/3
30	6	181/3

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