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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
9 Nov 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 61%; Netherlands batted first.
On 9 Nov 2024, Netherlands played United Arab Emirates at Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 1). Recorded result: Netherlands won by 67 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.
Netherlands's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 40%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.