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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2024 · Men
29 Aug 2024 · Test
Lord's · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettcaught · Lahiru Kumara · Prabath Jayasuriya4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lahiru Kumara · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 40 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 85.11 |
 Daniel Lawrencecaught · Nishan Madushka · Lahiru Kumara2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nishan Madushka · b Lahiru Kumara | 9 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 40.91 |
 Ollie Popecaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Asitha Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Asitha Fernando | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
 Joe Rootcaught · Pathum Nissanka · Milan Priyanath18 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Milan Priyanath |
| 143 |
| 206 |
| 18 |
| 0 |
| 69.42 |
 Harry Brooklbw · Asitha Fernando5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Asitha Fernando | 33 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 73.33 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Nishan Madushka · Milan Priyanath4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nishan Madushka · b Milan Priyanath | 21 | 57 | 4 | 0 | 36.84 |
|---|
 Chris Woakescaught · Asitha Fernando · Lahiru Kumara1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Asitha Fernando · b Lahiru Kumara | 6 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Milan Priyanath · Asitha Fernando 14 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Milan Priyanath · b Asitha Fernando | 118 | 115 | 14 | 4 | 102.61 |
|---|
 Matthew Pottscaught · Nishan Madushka · Asitha Fernando4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nishan Madushka · b Asitha Fernando | 21 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 48.84 |
|---|
 Oli Stonecaught · Kamindu Mendis · Asitha Fernando1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Asitha Fernando | 15 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 48.39 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashirnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 24.0 | 2 | 102 | 5 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Milan Priyanath2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 23.0 | 2 | 89 | 2 | 3.87 | 0 | 1 |
| Lahiru Kumara2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.0 | 2 | 101 | 2 | 4.39 | 0 | 0 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 29.0 | 2 | 96 | 1 | 3.31 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-33 (Daniel Lawrence, 6.5) · 2-42 (Ollie Pope, 9.2) · 3-82 (Ben Duckett, 18.4) · 4-130 (Harry Brook, 30.5) · 5-192 (Jamie Smith, 49.0) · 6-216 (Chris Woakes, 59.0) · 7-308 (Joe Root, 77.3) · 8-393 (Matthew Potts, 93.3) · 9-420 (Gus Atkinson, 99.3) · 10-427 (Oli Stone, 102.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 23/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 33/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 39/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 39/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 46/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 54/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 58/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 65/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 67/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 68/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 71/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 73/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 76/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 83/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 87/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 91/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 94/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 97/3 |
| 24 | 0 | 97/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 99/3 |
| 26 | 11 | 110/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 114/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 115/3 |
| 29 | 9 | 124/3 |
| 30 | 4 | 128/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 131/4 |
| 32 | 0 | 131/4 |
| 33 | 5 | 136/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 138/4 |
| 35 | 6 | 144/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 145/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 146/4 |
| 38 | 1 | 147/4 |
| 39 | 5 | 152/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 155/4 |
| 41 | 1 | 156/4 |
| 42 | 5 | 161/4 |
| 43 | 4 | 165/4 |
| 44 | 4 | 169/4 |
| 45 | 8 | 177/4 |
| 46 | 0 | 177/4 |
| 47 | 5 | 182/4 |
| 48 | 5 | 187/4 |
| 49 | 5 | 192/5 |
| 50 | 1 | 193/5 |
| 51 | 0 | 193/5 |
| 52 | 4 | 197/5 |
| 53 | 3 | 200/5 |
| 54 | 1 | 201/5 |
| 55 | 1 | 202/5 |
| 56 | 7 | 209/5 |
| 57 | 1 | 210/5 |
| 58 | 5 | 215/5 |
| 59 | 1 | 216/6 |
| 60 | 3 | 219/6 |
| 61 | 0 | 219/6 |
| 62 | 1 | 220/6 |
| 63 | 6 | 226/6 |
| 64 | 7 | 233/6 |
| 65 | 5 | 238/6 |
| 66 | 9 | 247/6 |
| 67 | 6 | 253/6 |
| 68 | 5 | 258/6 |
| 69 | 6 | 264/6 |
| 70 | 13 | 277/6 |
| 71 | 1 | 278/6 |
| 72 | 5 | 283/6 |
| 73 | 4 | 287/6 |
| 74 | 10 | 297/6 |
| 75 | 5 | 302/6 |
| 76 | 4 | 306/6 |
| 77 | 2 | 308/6 |
| 78 | 0 | 308/7 |
| 79 | 1 | 309/7 |
| 80 | 6 | 315/7 |
| 81 | 1 | 316/7 |
| 82 | 6 | 322/7 |
| 83 | 9 | 331/7 |
| 84 | 1 | 332/7 |
| 85 | 11 | 343/7 |
| 86 | 8 | 351/7 |
| 87 | 2 | 353/7 |
| 88 | 5 | 358/7 |
| 89 | 9 | 367/7 |
| 90 | 8 | 375/7 |
| 91 | 5 | 380/7 |
| 92 | 1 | 381/7 |
| 93 | 12 | 393/7 |
| 94 | 2 | 395/8 |
| 95 | 4 | 399/8 |
| 96 | 7 | 406/8 |
| 97 | 3 | 409/8 |
| 98 | 0 | 409/8 |
| 99 | 3 | 412/8 |
| 100 | 9 | 421/9 |
| 101 | 5 | 426/9 |
| 102 | 1 | 427/10 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Oli Stone: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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